volume: issue, issue:
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, black alder appears in scattered smaller forest stands, fragments and patches that are still not spatially separated and allocated in management plans, despite its high ecological importance. The objective of this study is to model a black alder ecological niche considering combined effects of climate, hydrological and air quality determinants to support decision-making of conservation and restoration activities on a local/regional level. Black alder occurrence was registered on 72 temporary sample plots representing about 1500 trees in the Bosna River basin corresponding to Level 6, EU-Hydro River Network Database. Six climatic variables (average annual temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, sum of temperature above 5°, sum of precipitation, maximum precipitation), five hydrological variables (average annual flow, minimum flow, maximum flow, flow between 1961–1990 and water level) and five air quality variables (average annual concentration of air particulate matter of PM2.5 and PM10 mm, SO2, NO2, maximum CO2) were interpolated spatially on 10 m grain size based on hydro-meteorological data from 13 national stations. The MaxEnt method was used to predict spatial distribution model, where predicted occurrence probabilities are classified in habitat suitability classes. The MaxEnt model revealed high-quality spatial prediction (AUC=0.95). The most significant determinants were average annual sum of precipitation and average annual 24-hour maximum CO2 concentration (cumulative about a 72% contribution). The highest occurrence probabilities were related to areas with less than 1400 mm of annual sum precipitation and elevated CO2 linked to low NO2. The areas with high species occurrence are mainly located in continental Bosnian Internal Dinarides in the valley and partly on hilly and sub-mountainous positions overlapping pedunculated oak-hornbeam and Illyrian sub-mountainous beech forests. Modeled ranges of precipitations and air variables concentrations indicate that black alder prefers continental low hilly and plane positions covering forest edges, although some suitable ecological niches are predicted in sub-urban and peri-urban green areas. The obtained model of species distribution determined spatially ecological niches important for conservation and restoration to maintain ecological services and biodiversity as well as aesthetic and recreational roles of black alder, which are important for local communities.
volume: 47, issue: 1
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, black alder appears in scattered smaller forest stands, fragments and patches that are still not spatially separated and allocated in management plans, despite its high ecological importance. The objective of this study is to model a black alder ecological niche considering combined effects of climate, hydrological and air quality determinants to support decision-making of conservation and restoration activities on a local/regional level. Black alder occurrence was registered on 72 temporary sample plots representing about 1500 trees in the Bosna River basin corresponding to Level 6, EU-Hydro River Network Database. Six climatic variables (average annual temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, sum of temperature above 5°, sum of precipitation, maximum precipitation), five hydrological variables (average annual flow, minimum flow, maximum flow, flow between 1961–1990 and water level) and five air quality variables (average annual concentration of air particulate matter of PM2.5 and PM10 mm, SO2, NO2, maximum CO2) were interpolated spatially on 10 m grain size based on hydro-meteorological data from 13 national stations. The MaxEnt method was used to predict spatial distribution model, where predicted occurrence probabilities are classified in habitat suitability classes. The MaxEnt model revealed high-quality spatial prediction (AUC=0.95). The most significant determinants were average annual sum of precipitation and average annual 24-hour maximum CO2 concentration (cumulative about a 72% contribution). The highest occurrence probabilities were related to areas with less than 1400 mm of annual sum precipitation and elevated CO2 linked to low NO2. The areas with high species occurrence are mainly located in continental Bosnian Internal Dinarides in the valley and partly on hilly and sub-mountainous positions overlapping pedunculated oak-hornbeam and Illyrian sub-mountainous beech forests. Modeled ranges of precipitations and air variables concentrations indicate that black alder prefers continental low hilly and plane positions covering forest edges, although some suitable ecological niches are predicted in sub-urban and peri-urban green areas. The obtained model of species distribution determined spatially ecological niches important for conservation and restoration to maintain ecological services and biodiversity as well as aesthetic and recreational roles of black alder, which are important for local communities.
